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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
December 31 · active · No 96% · Yes 5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
March 31 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?
January 31 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
June 30 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
May 31 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?
February 28 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
April 30 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%