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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2028-20260803142755224
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2028?
J.D. Vance · active · No 10% · Yes 90%
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Pete Buttigieg · active · No 14% · Yes 87%
Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2028?
Ted Cruz · active · No 13% · Yes 87%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Gavin Newsom · active · No 18% · Yes 82%
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2028?
Ron DeSantis · active · No 22% · Yes 79%
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Andy Beshear · active · No 23% · Yes 78%
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Rahm Emanuel · active · No 27% · Yes 73%
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Andrew Yang · active · No 35% · Yes 66%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Kamala Harris · active · No 29% · Yes 71%
Will J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run before 2028?
J.B. Pritzker · active · No 35% · Yes 66%
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Mark Kelly · active · No 37% · Yes 64%
Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Wes Moore · active · No 37% · Yes 63%
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Josh Shapiro · active · No 36% · Yes 64%
Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Cory Booker · active · No 36% · Yes 65%
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2028?
Josh Hawley · active · No 47% · Yes 54%
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Jon Ossoff · active · No 38% · Yes 63%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · active · No 46% · Yes 55%
Will Matt Gaetz announce a presidential run before 2028?
Matt Gaetz · active · No 47% · Yes 54%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2028?
Sarah Huckabee Sanders · active · No 50% · Yes 51%
Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2028?
Candace Owens · active · No 52% · Yes 49%
Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2028?
John Fetterman · active · No 67% · Yes 33%
Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Gretchen Whitmer · active · No 60% · Yes 40%
Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2028?
Nikki Haley · active · No 63% · Yes 37%
Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2028?
Rand Paul · active · No 64% · Yes 36%
Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Jared Polis · active · No 64% · Yes 37%
Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Raphael Warnock · active · No 66% · Yes 34%
Will Elise Stefanik announce a presidential run before 2028?
Elise Stefanik · active · No 71% · Yes 30%
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2028?
Marco Rubio · active · No 73% · Yes 28%
Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2028?
Glenn Youngkin · active · No 73% · Yes 27%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2028?
Marjorie Taylor Greene · active · No 71% · Yes 30%
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2028?
Don Lemon · active · No 73% · Yes 28%
Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2028?
Katie Britt · active · No 78% · Yes 22%
Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Beto O’Rourke · active · No 73% · Yes 27%
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2028?
Ivanka Trump · active · No 73% · Yes 28%
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028?
Tucker Carlson · active · No 75% · Yes 26%
Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2028?
Kristi Noem · active · No 71% · Yes 30%
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2028?
Brian Kemp · active · No 76% · Yes 25%
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2028?
George Clooney · active · No 83% · Yes 17%
Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Phil Murphy · active · No 78% · Yes 22%
Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2028?
Byron Donalds · active · No 79% · Yes 22%
Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2028?
Greg Abbott · active · No 78% · Yes 22%
Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2028?
Elon Musk · active · No 81% · Yes 20%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2028?
Vivek Ramaswamy · active · No 81% · Yes 19%
Will Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Gina Raimondo · active · No 80% · Yes 21%
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2028?
Tulsi Gabbard · active · No 81% · Yes 19%
Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2028?
Donald Trump Jr. · active · No 81% · Yes 19%
Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Stephen A. Smith · active · No 81% · Yes 19%
Will Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2028?
Mike Pence · active · No 84% · Yes 17%
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2028?
Steve Bannon · active · No 82% · Yes 19%
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Jon Stewart · active · No 83% · Yes 17%
Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Mark Cuban · active · No 82% · Yes 19%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson · active · No 84% · Yes 16%
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Bernie Sanders · active · No 86% · Yes 14%
Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Michelle Obama · active · No 84% · Yes 16%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2028?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · active · No 85% · Yes 16%
Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2028?
John Thune · active · No 85% · Yes 16%
Will Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Kim Kardashian · active · No 87% · Yes 14%
Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Roy Cooper · active · No 86% · Yes 14%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Hunter Biden · active · No 66% · Yes 34%
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2028?
Tom Brady · active · No 86% · Yes 14%
Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Oprah Winfrey · active · No 88% · Yes 13%
Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Liz Cheney · active · No 87% · Yes 13%
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2028?
Donald Trump · active · No 88% · Yes 12%
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Zohran Mamdani · active · No 90% · Yes 11%
Will Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Tim Walz · active · No 90% · Yes 10%
Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2028?
MrBeast · active · No 92% · Yes 9%
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2028?
Erika Kirk · active · No 93% · Yes 8%
Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Chelsea Clinton · active · No 90% · Yes 10%
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Hillary Clinton · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Barack Obama · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2028?
LeBron James · active · No 99% · Yes 1%