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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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https://polymarket.com/event/which-senate-races-will-be-within-5-20260727153827321
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Alaska · active · No 51% · Yes 49%
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Texas · active · No 21% · Yes 80%
Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Maine · active · No 44% · Yes 56%
Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Michigan · active · No 36% · Yes 64%
Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Iowa · active · No 39% · Yes 62%
Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Ohio (Special) · active · No 42% · Yes 59%
Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
North Carolina · active · No 60% · Yes 40%
Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
New Hampshire · active · No 62% · Yes 38%
Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Nebraska · active · No 60% · Yes 41%
Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Florida (Special) · active · No 62% · Yes 39%
Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Kansas · active · No 77% · Yes 24%
Will the South Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
South Carolina · active · No 43% · Yes 57%
Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Georgia · active · No 71% · Yes 29%
Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Minnesota · active · No 79% · Yes 22%
Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
New Mexico · active · No 90% · Yes 11%
Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Montana · active · No 90% · Yes 10%
Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Colorado · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Virginia · active · No 97% · Yes 4%