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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markets
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela · active · No 92% · Yes 9%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
Indonesia · active · No 95% · Yes 6%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
Lebanon · active · No 91% · Yes 9%
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
Kuwait · active · No 94% · Yes 7%
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?
Tunisia · active · No 94% · Yes 7%
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?
Syria · active · No 95% · Yes 6%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?
Qatar · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?
North Korea · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Pakistan · active · No 96% · Yes 5%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
Saudi Arabia · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
Cuba · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
Iran · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?
Bangladesh · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?
Malaysia · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Afghanistan · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?
Iraq · active · No 94% · Yes 6%