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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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FutureSearch
76%
Polymarket
84%
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
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https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-october
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markets
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Anthropic · active · No 17% · Yes 84%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
OpenAI · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
DeepSeek · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Google · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Baidu · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
SpaceXAI · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Nvidia · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Mistral · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Amazon · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Meituan · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Meta · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Z.ai · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
MiniMax · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Thinky · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
StepFun · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Tencent · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Xiaomi · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Microsoft · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Alibaba · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Moonshot · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
ByteDance · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%