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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on September 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
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https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-it-rain-on-september-3-2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on September 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
Markets
Will it rain in Seattle, WA on September 3?
Seattle, WA · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in Miami, FL on September 3?
Miami, FL · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in New York, NY on September 3?
New York, NY · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in Houston, TX on September 3?
Houston, TX · active · No 1% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in Boston, MA on September 3?
Boston, MA · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on September 3?
Philadelphia, PA · active · No 1% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in Washington, DC on September 3?
Washington, DC · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in San Francisco, CA on September 3?
San Francisco, CA · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on September 3?
Atlanta, GA · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on September 3?
Los Angeles, CA · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on September 3?
Phoenix, AZ · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on September 3?
New Orleans, LA · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will it rain in Denver, CO on September 3?
Denver, CO · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on September 3?
Dallas, TX · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 3?
Chicago, IL · active · No 100% · Yes 0%