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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
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https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-austin-metro-area-be-on-september-30-20260630180633090
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Markets
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?
<$446K · active · No 18% · Yes 83%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30?
$454K - $462K · active · No 90% · Yes 10%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?
$446K - $454K · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $462,000 and $470,000 on September 30?
$462K - $470K · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?
$470K - $478K · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on September 30?
$486K+ · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?
$478K - $486K · active · No 99% · Yes 1%