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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
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https://polymarket.com/event/vanier-les-rivieres-quebec-national-assembly-election-winner
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Markets
Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?
Patrick Paquet · active · No 49% · Yes 52%
Will Stéphanie Martin win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?
Stéphanie Martin · active · No 80% · Yes 21%
Will Françoise Faverjon-Fortin win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?
Françoise Faverjon-Fortin · active · No 77% · Yes 23%
Will Charles Hudon win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?
Charles Hudon · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will another candidate win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%