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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
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https://polymarket.com/event/vaimauga-3-by-election-winner
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Markets
Will Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia win the Vaimauga 3 by-election?
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia · active · No 57% · Yes 43%
Will Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo win the Vaimauga 3 by-election?
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo · active · No 72% · Yes 28%
Will Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo win the Vaimauga 3 by-election?
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo · active · No 75% · Yes 25%
Will Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni win the Vaimauga 3 by-election?
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni · active · No 92% · Yes 8%
Will another candidate win the Vaimauga 3 by-election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%