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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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27%
Polymarket
36%
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This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
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https://polymarket.com/event/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-december
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markets
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
2.5 - 3.0M · active · No 70% · Yes 31%
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
<2.0M · active · No 81% · Yes 19%
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?
2.0 - 2.5M · active · No 65% · Yes 36%
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?
3.0 - 3.5M · active · No 85% · Yes 16%
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
3.5 - 4.0M · active · No 96% · Yes 5%
Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
4.0M+ · active · No 96% · Yes 4%