Loading chart…
Overview appears after you initialize.
What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
Sample questions — ask your own from the bar below.
FutureSearch
42%
Polymarket
50%
Independent research
A funded FutureSearch run produces a dated forecast, rationale, and cited analysis for this Entry.
Sample forecast preview — open Forecast to run or view the real artifact.
Sources appear after Overview research.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Sources appear after you initialize.
Asking is free and does not run AI.
No questions yet.
Loading forecast…
Feed activity appears after initialize and updates.
Admin
Open Trace — inspect how this Entry’s artifacts were produced
Research uses a two-step flow: open web research, then a structured Overview extraction. Initialize builds the baseline Overview; Update produces a dated Overview for a specific UTC calendar day.
Build the first current-state Overview and sources.
Research a specific UTC calendar day and save the canonical Overview for that date. Same-day reruns refresh that date.
Initialize the Entry before updating Overviews.
https://polymarket.com/event/third-best-text-arena-math-ai-lab-end-of-september-20260722221057130
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markets
Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
OpenAI · active · No 55% · Yes 45%
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Google · active · No 67% · Yes 34%
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Alibaba · active · No 87% · Yes 14%
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Z.ai · active · No 95% · Yes 6%
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Moonshot · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Baidu be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Baidu · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Meta · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Anthropic · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
SpaceXAI · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will MiniMax be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
MiniMax · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Microsoft be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Microsoft · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Tencent be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Tencent · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Mistral be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Mistral · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will StepFun be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
StepFun · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
DeepSeek · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Bytedance be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Bytedance · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Xiaomi · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Amazon be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Amazon · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Meituan be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Meituan · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Nvidia be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Nvidia · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will any other AI lab/company be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%