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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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FutureSearch
42%
Polymarket
50%
Independent research
A funded FutureSearch run produces a dated forecast, rationale, and cited analysis for this Entry.
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This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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https://polymarket.com/event/third-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-lab-end-of-september-20260722220024427
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markets
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Alibaba · active · No 68% · Yes 32%
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Moonshot · active · No 89% · Yes 11%
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
SpaceXAI · active · No 74% · Yes 26%
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
OpenAI · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will Anthropic be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Anthropic · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
DeepSeek · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Google be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Google · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will ByteDance be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
ByteDance · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Xiaomi · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Z.ai · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Meta · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Thinky be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Thinky · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will MiniMax be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
MiniMax · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Tencent be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Tencent · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will Mistral be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Mistral · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Poolside be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Poolside · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will any other AI lab/company be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%