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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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92%
Polymarket
100%
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This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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https://polymarket.com/event/spider-man-brand-new-day-6th-weekend-box-office
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Markets
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?
15m+ · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?
14-15m · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?
13-14m · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?
11-12m · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?
<11m · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?
12-13m · active · No 100% · Yes 0%