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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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FutureSearch
62%
Polymarket
70%
Independent research
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The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
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https://polymarket.com/event/sergipe-governor-election-winner
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markets
Will Fábio win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Fábio · active · No 30% · Yes 70%
Will Valmir de Francisquinho win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Valmir de Francisquinho · active · No 70% · Yes 30%
Will Taty Cristina de Jesus win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Taty Cristina de Jesus · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Emanuel Cacho win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Emanuel Cacho · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Dr. Helton win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Dr. Helton · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Ricardo Marques win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Ricardo Marques · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Placeholder 3 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 3 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 8 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 8 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 17 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 17 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 1 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 1 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 14 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 14 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 10 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 10 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 13 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 13 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 11 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 11 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 9 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 9 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 4 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 4 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 12 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 12 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 16 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 16 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 19 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 19 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 15 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 15 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 18 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 18 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 2 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 2 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will someone else win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 6 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 6 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 7 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 7 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 5 win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 5 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%