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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
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https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Markets
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) · active · No 54% · Yes 46%
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
New People (NL) · active · No 61% · Yes 40%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) · active · No 91% · Yes 10%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Yabloko · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia (ER) · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Civic Platform (GP) · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Rodina · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Other win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Other · unknown