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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
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https://polymarket.com/event/russia-nuclear-test-by
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markets
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
December 31, 2026 · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
September 30, 2026 · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?
December 31 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?
March 31, 2026 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
June 30, 2026 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?
November 30 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%