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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
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https://polymarket.com/event/roraima-senate-election-1st-place
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markets
Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Teresa Surita · active · No 45% · Yes 56%
Will Nicoletti win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Nicoletti · active · No 69% · Yes 31%
Will Helio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Helio Bolsonaro · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Helena da Asatur win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Helena da Asatur · active · No 88% · Yes 12%
Will Chico Rodrigues win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Chico Rodrigues · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Pastor Isamar win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Pastor Isamar · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Regina Tio Ivo win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Regina Tio Ivo · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Hilton Xavier win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Hilton Xavier · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Mario Rocha win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Mario Rocha · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Márcio Junqueira win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Márcio Junqueira · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Rogério Miranda win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Rogério Miranda · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Bartô Macuxi win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Bartô Macuxi · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Hiperion de Oliveira win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Hiperion de Oliveira · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will someone else win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%