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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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63%
Polymarket
71%
Independent research
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The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
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https://polymarket.com/event/rondonia-governor-election-winner
The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markets
Will Marcos Rogério win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Marcos Rogério · active · No 29% · Yes 71%
Will Adailton Furia win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Adailton Furia · active · No 82% · Yes 18%
Will Hildon Chaves win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Hildon Chaves · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Expedito Netto win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Expedito Netto · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Pedro Abib win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Pedro Abib · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Samuel Costa win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Samuel Costa · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Placeholder 18 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 18 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 15 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 15 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 8 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 8 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 11 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 11 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 4 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 4 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 3 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 3 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 19 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 19 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 9 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 9 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 1 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 1 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 6 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 6 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 7 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 7 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 16 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 16 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will someone else win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 2 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 2 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 14 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 14 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 17 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 17 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 12 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 12 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 13 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 13 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 10 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 10 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%
Will Placeholder 5 win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
Placeholder 5 · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%