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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
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https://polymarket.com/event/pernambuco-senate-election-2nd-place
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markets
Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Mendonça Filho · active · No 51% · Yes 50%
Will Humberto Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Humberto Costa · active · No 63% · Yes 38%
Will Túlio Gadêlha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Túlio Gadêlha · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will Marília Arraes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Marília Arraes · active · No 92% · Yes 8%
Will Eduardo da Fonte win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Eduardo da Fonte · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Pastor Gilvan Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Pastor Gilvan Costa · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Mariano Macedo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Mariano Macedo · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Samuel Timoteo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Samuel Timoteo · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Gorett Bitu win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Gorett Bitu · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Mailson da Silva Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Mailson da Silva Neto · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Carlos Sant'Anna win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Carlos Sant'Anna · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Paulo Rubem Santiago win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Paulo Rubem Santiago · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will someone else win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%