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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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FutureSearch
91%
Polymarket
99%
Independent research
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt6-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20260810180408165
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Markets
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?
35%+ · active · No 1% · Yes 99%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
40%+ · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
45%+ · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
50%+ · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
55%+ · active · No 98% · Yes 2%