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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.
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https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory
The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.
Markets
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?
Pappas 25–30% · active · No 90% · Yes 10%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 5–10%?
Pappas 5–10% · active · No 77% · Yes 23%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 10–15%?
Pappas 10–15% · active · No 79% · Yes 22%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?
Pappas 35–40% · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 0–5%?
Pappas 0–5% · active · No 89% · Yes 12%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 20–25%?
Pappas 20–25% · active · No 76% · Yes 24%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%?
Pappas 30–35% · active · No 76% · Yes 24%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?
Pappas 15–20% · active · No 52% · Yes 49%
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by at least 40%?
Pappas 40%+ · active · No 92% · Yes 8%
Will Karishma Manzur win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by at least 5%?
Manzur 5%+ · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will Karishma Manzur win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?
Manzur 0–5% · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will another outcome occur in the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%