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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
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Research uses a two-step flow: open web research, then a structured Overview extraction. Initialize builds the baseline Overview; Update produces a dated Overview for a specific UTC calendar day.
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https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-jinan-on-september-5-2026
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markets
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 16°C on September 5?
16°C · active · No 1% · Yes 100%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 15°C on September 5?
15°C · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 12°C or below on September 5?
12°C or below · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 13°C on September 5?
13°C · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 14°C on September 5?
14°C · active · No 56% · Yes 44%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 18°C on September 5?
18°C · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 17°C on September 5?
17°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 22°C or higher on September 5?
22°C or higher · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 20°C on September 5?
20°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on September 5?
19°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 21°C on September 5?
21°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%