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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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87%
Polymarket
95%
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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
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https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-september-5-2026
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markets
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C on September 5?
10°C · active · No 5% · Yes 95%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C or below on September 5?
9°C or below · active · No 53% · Yes 47%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on September 5?
15°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on September 5?
13°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on September 5?
17°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on September 5?
12°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on September 5?
18°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on September 5?
14°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on September 5?
16°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on September 5?
11°C · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on September 5?
19°C or higher · active · No 100% · Yes 0%