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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
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https://polymarket.com/event/laurier-dorion-quebec-national-assembly-election-winner
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Markets
Will Andrés Fontecilla win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?
Andrés Fontecilla · active · No 32% · Yes 69%
Will Randy Legault-Rankin win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?
Randy Legault-Rankin · active · No 74% · Yes 26%
Will Derek Lefebvre win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?
Derek Lefebvre · active · No 99% · Yes 2%
Will Emil Parfyonov win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?
Emil Parfyonov · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Kelly Lazo de la Vega win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?
Kelly Lazo de la Vega · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will another candidate win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%