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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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FutureSearch
91%
Polymarket
99%
Independent research
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This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 1, 12:00 PM ET and September 8, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-of-tweets-september-1-september-8-2026
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 1, 12:00 PM ET and September 8, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markets
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
<5 · active · No 1% · Yes 99%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
15-19 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
10-14 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
5-9 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
25-29 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
40-44 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
55-59 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
45-49 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
20-24 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
50-54 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
35-39 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
30-34 · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
60+ · active · No 100% · Yes 0%