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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Markets
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
December 31 · active · No 96% · Yes 5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
September 30 · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
June 30 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?
May 31 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
July 31 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
August 31 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?
April 30 · closed · No 100% · Yes 0%