Loading chart…
Overview appears after you initialize.
What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
Sample questions — ask your own from the bar below.
FutureSearch
12%
Polymarket
21%
Independent research
A funded FutureSearch run produces a dated forecast, rationale, and cited analysis for this Entry.
Sample forecast preview — open Forecast to run or view the real artifact.
Sources appear after Overview research.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Sources appear after you initialize.
Asking is free and does not run AI.
No questions yet.
Loading forecast…
Feed activity appears after initialize and updates.
Admin
Open Trace — inspect how this Entry’s artifacts were produced
Research uses a two-step flow: open web research, then a structured Overview extraction. Initialize builds the baseline Overview; Update produces a dated Overview for a specific UTC calendar day.
Build the first current-state Overview and sources.
Research a specific UTC calendar day and save the canonical Overview for that date. Same-day reruns refresh that date.
Initialize the Entry before updating Overviews.
https://polymarket.com/event/ism-manufacturing-pmi-september-2026
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markets
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September?
55.0 to 55.9 · active · No 84% · Yes 17%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in September?
56.0 to 56.9 · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September?
53.0 to 53.9 · active · No 80% · Yes 20%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?
54.0 to 54.9 · active · No 80% · Yes 21%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in September?
52.0 to 52.9 · active · No 82% · Yes 18%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in September?
57.0 to 57.9 · active · No 88% · Yes 13%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in September?
51.0 to 51.9 · active · No 95% · Yes 6%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 58.0 in September?
58.0+ · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 50.0 in September?
<50.0 · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in September?
50.0 to 50.9 · active · No 99% · Yes 1%