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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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19%
Polymarket
27%
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This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
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https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-jobs-added-in-september-2026
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Markets
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?
50k to 100k · active · No 74% · Yes 27%
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in September?
0 to 50k · active · No 80% · Yes 21%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September?
100k to 150k · active · No 80% · Yes 21%
Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in September?
-50k to 0 · active · No 84% · Yes 17%
Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in September?
<-50k · active · No 91% · Yes 9%
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in September?
200k+ · active · No 93% · Yes 7%
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in September?
150k to 200k · active · No 94% · Yes 7%