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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on September 16, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the September Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-dissent-at-the-september-fed-meeting
The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on September 16, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the September Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markets
Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?
3 · active · No 81% · Yes 20%
Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?
4+ · active · No 87% · Yes 13%
Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?
2 · active · No 78% · Yes 22%
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?
1 · active · No 77% · Yes 24%
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?
0 · active · No 72% · Yes 28%