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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
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Research uses a two-step flow: open web research, then a structured Overview extraction. Initialize builds the baseline Overview; Update produces a dated Overview for a specific UTC calendar day.
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https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-seattle-on-september-6-2026
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markets
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on September 6?
72-73°F · active · No 0% · Yes 100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 6?
70-71°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on September 6?
74-75°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 6?
68-69°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on September 6?
76-77°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 6?
66-67°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on September 6?
78-79°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on September 6?
80-81°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on September 6?
64-65°F · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 6?
63°F or below · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 82°F or higher on September 6?
82°F or higher · active · No 100% · Yes 0%