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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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51%
Polymarket
59%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
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https://polymarket.com/event/highest-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723190142922
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Markets
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
60%+ · active · No 41% · Yes 59%
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
65%+ · active · No 71% · Yes 30%
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
70%+ · active · No 84% · Yes 16%
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?
75%+ · active · No 88% · Yes 13%
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?
80%+ · active · No 93% · Yes 7%
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?
90%+ · active · No 96% · Yes 4%