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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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Polymarket
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The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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https://polymarket.com/event/emmys-2026-outstanding-supporting-actress-in-a-comedy-series
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets
Will Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay” · active · No 23% · Yes 77%
Will Hannah Einbinder – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
Hannah Einbinder – “Hacks” · active · No 81% · Yes 19%
Will Janelle James – “Abbott Elementary” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
Janelle James – “Abbott Elementary” · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Michelle Pfeiffer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
Michelle Pfeiffer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Megan Stalter – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
Megan Stalter – “Hacks” · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Jessica Williams – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
Jessica Williams – “Shrinking” · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Dale Dickey – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
Dale Dickey – “Widow’s Bay” · active · No 99% · Yes 1%