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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
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https://polymarket.com/event/drummond-bois-francs-quebec-national-assembly-election-winner
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Markets
Will Charles Page win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?
Charles Page · active · No 43% · Yes 57%
Will Sébastien Schneeberger win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?
Sébastien Schneeberger · active · No 63% · Yes 38%
Will Myriam Cournoyer win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?
Myriam Cournoyer · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will another candidate win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%