Loading chart…
Overview appears after you initialize.
What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
Sample questions — ask your own from the bar below.
FutureSearch
48%
Polymarket
56%
Independent research
A funded FutureSearch run produces a dated forecast, rationale, and cited analysis for this Entry.
Sample forecast preview — open Forecast to run or view the real artifact.
Sources appear after Overview research.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Adamawa State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Sources appear after you initialize.
Asking is free and does not run AI.
No questions yet.
Loading forecast…
Feed activity appears after initialize and updates.
Admin
Open Trace — inspect how this Entry’s artifacts were produced
Research uses a two-step flow: open web research, then a structured Overview extraction. Initialize builds the baseline Overview; Update produces a dated Overview for a specific UTC calendar day.
Build the first current-state Overview and sources.
Research a specific UTC calendar day and save the canonical Overview for that date. Same-day reruns refresh that date.
Initialize the Entry before updating Overviews.
https://polymarket.com/event/adamawa-nigeria-governor-election-winner
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Adamawa State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Markets
Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
Ahmed Galadima · active · No 44% · Yes 56%
Will Maurice Vunobolki win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
Maurice Vunobolki · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will Omar Suleiman win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
Omar Suleiman · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Wafarinyi Theman Dalatu win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
Wafarinyi Theman Dalatu · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Christopher Nathaniel win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
Christopher Nathaniel · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will any other candidate win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%