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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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FutureSearch
48%
Polymarket
56%
Independent research
A funded FutureSearch run produces a dated forecast, rationale, and cited analysis for this Entry.
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Sources appear after Overview research.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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https://polymarket.com/event/3-ai-lab-end-of-september-style-control-on-20260722222220184
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markets
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Meta · active · No 76% · Yes 24%
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Google · active · No 45% · Yes 56%
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
OpenAI · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will Z.ai be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Z.ai · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Alibaba · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Moonshot · active · No 93% · Yes 7%
Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
ByteDance · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Anthropic · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will SpaceXAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
SpaceXAI · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will Baidu be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Baidu · active · No 99% · Yes 1%
Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
DeepSeek · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will Mistral be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Mistral · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Microsoft be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Microsoft · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Tencent be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Tencent · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will MiniMax be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
MiniMax · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Nvidia be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Nvidia · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will StepFun be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
StepFun · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Thinky be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Thinky · active · No 100% · Yes 1%
Will Amazon be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Amazon · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Xiaomi be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Xiaomi · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
Meituan · active · No 100% · Yes 0%
Will any other company have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?
Other · unknown · No 50% · Yes 50%