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What would most likely move this market in the next two weeks?
A clear polling shift in the remaining toss-up states, or a debate that changes the race’s fundamentals rather than a one-day headline.
Is the current price missing turnout or coalition risk?
Yes in part — implied odds still lean on national polling averages and may underweight late-deciding and first-time voters.
What would cause this market to resolve earlier than expected?
A concession, certified result, or an unambiguous official call that meets the resolution criteria — not unofficial media projections alone.
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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · active · No 4% · Yes 96%
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud · active · No 14% · Yes 86%
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Édouard Philippe · active · No 21% · Yes 80%
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen · active · No 11% · Yes 89%
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Fabien Roussel · active · No 14% · Yes 86%
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Éric Zemmour · active · No 28% · Yes 73%
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Bruno Retailleau · active · No 26% · Yes 74%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · active · No 43% · Yes 57%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Raphaël Glucksmann · active · No 36% · Yes 64%
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
David Lisnard · active · No 31% · Yes 70%
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
François Ruffin · active · No 69% · Yes 32%
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
François Hollande · active · No 65% · Yes 36%
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Gabriel Attal · active · No 77% · Yes 24%
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Dominique de Villepin · active · No 68% · Yes 32%
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Tondelier · active · No 74% · Yes 26%
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Xavier Bertrand · active · No 85% · Yes 16%
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Sarah Knafo · active · No 88% · Yes 13%
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Olivier Faure · active · No 86% · Yes 14%
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Jordan Bardella · active · No 88% · Yes 12%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Juan Branco · active · No 89% · Yes 12%
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
François Asselineau · active · No 90% · Yes 11%
Will Delphine Batho be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Delphine Batho · active · No 92% · Yes 8%
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Manuel Bompard · active · No 93% · Yes 8%
Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Jean-Michel Fauvergue · active · No 93% · Yes 8%
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Matthieu Pigasse · active · No 94% · Yes 7%
Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Élisabeth Borne · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Michel-Edouard Leclerc · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Teddy Riner · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Karim Bouamrane · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Bally Bagayoko · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Sébastien Lecornu · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Bernard Cazeneuve · active · No 93% · Yes 7%
Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Mathilde Panot · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
François Bayrou · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yaël Braun-Pivet · active · No 95% · Yes 6%
Will Manuel Valls be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Manuel Valls · active · No 95% · Yes 5%
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Michel Barnier · active · No 94% · Yes 6%
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Jean Castex · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Carole Delga · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Gérald Darmanin · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Philippe de Villiers · active · No 96% · Yes 4%
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Jérôme Guedj · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Laurent Wauquiez · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ségolène Royal · active · No 97% · Yes 3%
Will Clémentine Autain be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Clémentine Autain · active · No 98% · Yes 2%
Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Valérie Pécresse · active · No 97% · Yes 3%